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Part 2: Understanding the Development of the Fragility Score


I’m Active, Eat Right, and Have Never Broken a Bone…Why is my Fragility Score Yellow or Red?!?!?!

Authors:

Kimberly Zambito, MD, Orthopaedic Surgeon and Owner of Qualis Os

www.qualisos.com

Dr Nick Birch FRCS (Orth), Consultant Spine and Bone Health Specialist

www.osteoscanuk.com

Andrew Bush, MD, Orthopaedic Surgeon

www.centralcarolinaortho.com

 

Databases are used in many aspects of our everyday lives. When making a database, information from the general population, or a specific activity such as scientific research, is collected and then compiled in a centralized location in an organized manner for consistency and accessibility. Once the information is collected and organized in the database the information can be searched in multiple ways to answer a range of questions, and it therefore becomes very valuable. The information in a database, when correctly evaluated and analyzed, can then be used to help make decisions or predictions. With information gathered into an organized database, patterns will be observed and trends can be determined.


Often the collected data in a database will be represented in scattergrams or scatter graphs. These can be used to compare a range of “variables”. Variables are the things that change when something is being observed. For instance, if you were plotting the change in the temperature at noon each day, you would need to record the date as one variable and the temperature as the other. The illustrations below demonstrate scattergrams that show what the kinds of relationships between variables might look like. If the variables are highly correlated (noontime temperature and month of the year for instance) the scattergram shows a strongly positive trend (the “r” number is “+”). The opposite trend is strongly negative ( “-r”) which might for example reflect the relationship between the bank balance and level of gambling activity of a person who habitually loses at the tables when they visit Las Vegas. Both strongly positive and strongly negative trends reflect a narrow range of variables in well-defined situations. Weakly positive and weakly negative correlations are common in life, particularly in medicine, usually because there are a range of variables affecting an outcome and picking just one to try to correlate to that outcome means that only part of the picture is shown. The relationship of fracture risk and age is a good example of a weak correlation as there are many more factors that affect a person’s likelihood of fracturing than just their age. 


A graph showing a strong and weak relationship


Statistical analysis can be performed on the data from the database that contributes to a scatterplot. When the appropriate statistics are applied to the contents of a database an average can be calculated. The average will provide the data value with the most common property or feature that would best represent all the data in the database. This information can then be used to anticipate patterns and trends and develop expectations to be used in the general population.


In REMS, a value known as the Fragility Score is obtained during testing. The obtained value is applied to a scattergram to determine the chance of sustaining a fragility fracture:

A graph showing the fragility score of a person by age

The Fragility Score graph on the second page of a standard REMS report represents the likelihood that someone will fracture based on age (x-axis) and the measured Fragility Score (y-axis). The result for any one scan is shown as circle with a cross inside and this is part of a “scattergram”, the rest of which is hidden. The database that allowed the scattergram of the FS values to be created came from people who had had REMS scans and whose fracture history was known. When this database was being created, the FS of individuals who had no history of a fragility fracture were placed on the graph with a green dot. The FS of individuals who had sustained a fragility fracture were placed with a red dot.  This means that no one in the green-zone has fractured, whereas everyone in the red-zone has fractured.


The yellow is an add-on color covering up the zone of overlapping green and red dots. In the yellow-zone, near the green-zone, most people have not fractured but a few have (if you could peek under the yellow ribbon you would see many green dots and only a few red ones). In the yellow-zone near the red-zone most individuals have had a fragility fracture, but a few have not (mainly red dots under the yellow ribbon with a few green). Fracture risk can then be determined by combining the information from the first two pages of the REMS report- bone mineral density and Fragility Score.  As a preventative medicine tool, the Fragility Score which is a reflection of the bone quality has impact on fracture risk assessment. 


REMS is a powerful bone health screening tool, and it has similarities to other screening technologies such as mammography. Mammography is recommended on a yearly basis not to assess the health of the breast but to identify a density or mass that was not present on the prior exam.  Similarly, REMS assessments are recommended on a yearly basis for women who are postmenopausal to look for significant (catastrophic) bone loss as could happen with a change in lifestyle or the development of medical conditions that affect bone health. The REMS FS slowly rises with age, but if the trend does not significantly vary from what is expected as “normal” it will indicate stable bone health. Refer to a prior blog regarding understanding changes in DXA or REMS.


While the Fragility Score is more predictive of fracture risk than BMD by DXA or REMS, it is not perfect. Like all the other methods used to estimate fracture risk, it is based on statistics, and statistics are based on data collected from a defined population. There are factors that can affect how statistics can be applied in an individual clinical scenario that are dependent on the data collection technique and the population chosen:

  • Who collected the data and how was it collected?
  • Who comprised the database?
  • How many individuals are in the data base?


As the scattergrams above show, for a weakly positive trend, there is a large range of data points that do not lie near the trend line. Many of these will represent individuals who will be considered “outliers”; therefore, the statistics and the graphs may not correctly represent such an individual’s condition.


Statistics when used appropriately are powerful predictors of trends and the likelihood that an event will occur. However, there are circumstances when the prediction will not be correct.


REMS is a technology we use to screen for fracture risk. The information gained from this powerful medical screening device does not define you, but helps medical professionals advise you on how to mitigate your fracture risk. It is critical to engage a trained medical professional who knows how to apply this information in the correct context for your health.


Coming soon - Part 3:  Estimating your risk of a future fracture due to impaired bone health: Is Fracture Risk Really Age-Dependent?

A person is standing on a scale surrounded by fruits and vegetables.
March 17, 2025
I’m Active, Eat Right, and Have Never Broken a Bone…Why is my Fragility Score Yellow or Red?!?!?!
A group of older women are dancing together in a room.
September 23, 2024
Fall Prevention Week is September 23-27, 2024 . It coincides with the beginning of Autumn or Fall…how very punny. Falls are not funny though. Whenever a patient tells me they had a “bad” fall from a standing height, it sometimes indicates that they are in denial of their bone health. There are no “bad” falls from a standing height. There are falls that break bones and falls that do not break bones. Most of the resources on this website focus on technology to measure bone density and bone quality. While both components of bone are related to fracture risk, we cannot forget the importance of fall prevention. This blog post is not about high-impact injuries that result in broken bones, it is about preventing fractures resulting from a fall from a standing or sitting position. Why are these low energy falls such a big deal? These falls have the potential to become significant life changing events , especially if a fall results in a fracture. A history of fracture can increase the risk of subsequent fractures: Prior rib fracture can increase risk of vertebral body fractures by 2.3- fold Prior vertebral fracture can increase risk of subsequent vertebral fractures by 9.1-fold; new hip fracture by 7.1- fold; and wrist fracture by 2.3- fold Prior shoulder fracture can increase risk of new wrist fracture by 5-fold; new vertebral body fracture by 10-fold; and new hip fracture by 18-fold Prior wrist fracture can increase risk of vertebral body fracture by 37% The Center for Disease Control has estimated the rate of death from falls increased 30% from 2007 to 2016. If this rate continues to increase, there will be an estimated 7 deaths each hour related to falls. Falls can occur for many reasons, no matter your age. When younger people fall intact protective mechanisms may lead to a fall on an outstretched hand, resulting in a hand or wrist fracture. Older people have compromised protective mechanisms which may lead to a fall on their side, resulting in a hip fracture, or even a head injury. The CDC and National Council for Aging are excellent resources for learning about fall prevention. You can find a questionnaire to check your risk for falling here . While this information about falls may seem scary at first, it can empower you to talk to your health care provider about fall prevention. There are a number of simple in-office fall assessment tools available through your doctor or physical therapist. Ask about having your balance assessed. If your primary care doctor or orthopaedic surgeon are not able to assess you, ask for an assessment with a physical therapist. Here are some safety tips for you or for loved ones at home: Ask your loved one if they are concerned about falling. Be gentle and compassionate. God willing, we will all grow older, and most likely weaker. Notice if they are holding on to furniture or walls to move about the house, or have difficulty getting out of a chair. Discuss current health conditions. Have a list of current medications. Sometimes medications can make people dizzy, weak, or affect eyesight. Ask about their last eye exam and if they needed updated glasses. Do a home safety check. You can get a home safety checklist at the website listed above. Ask about fluid and food intake. Dehydration and low blood sugar can cause dizziness and lead to falls. Let’s not forget about pets. 66.4% of falls associated with cats and 31.3% of falls associated with dogs are from tripping over the animal Among people hospitalized for falls over pets, 79.9% were fractures 8.8% of pet-related injuries were caused by people tripping over a pet toy or food bowl Journal of Safety Research 2010 and WebMD 2010 Here are a few tips to consider: Walk the dog, don’t let the dog walk you Dog obedience training Clean food and water spills that can cause slip and falls Clear floors of pet toys and leashes Avoid bending over to pet an animal Crate your dog or put the dog outside when expecting company Be aware of your limitations and consider risk assessment before doing something you may consider stupid after sustaining an injury. If you have never tried ice-skating and you have decided that you want to try it as an older adult, you may consider doing a risk assessment. That assessment may go something like this: If I fall and break my wrist, will I be able to work and continue to earn money to pay my bills? If I broke my ankle, who will drive me around? For me, the answer is learning to ice-skate at my age is not worth the risk of a fracture. There are other activities I enjoy doing. Many patients have asked about skiing. If you have enjoyed skiing your entire life and you desire to continue this activity, do a risk assessment of the type of skiing you want to do. You may decide to stay away from black diamonds. You may decide you will be better off on green or blue slopes. You can still enjoy the activity as you age with some adjustments. At some point, you may decide that the activity no longer gives you the joy it did previously and you move on to something else. Situational awareness or mindfulness in the moment is key to fall prevention. Whenever a patient comes to me for treatment of a fracture, I ask about how the fracture occurred. Typically, the answer is related to a fall. I follow with, “How did you fall?”. A story unfolds. Many times the story involves doing too much at once, not paying attention, or not turning on a light at night and tripping on something. Slow down. Have a night light for those night-time trips to the bathroom. Avoid carrying 15 grocery bags into the house at one time. Carry 3-4 and make multiple trips. Being in the moment prevents falls. In summary, there are a number of reasons why a person may fall. Reasons may include medications or interactions of medications that cause dizziness; poor eyesight; muscular weakness, dehydration, low blood sugar, a cluttered home, lack of mindfulness, pets, and not knowing limitations. The CDC and the National Council on Aging are great resources to get started with assessing your risk or your loved one’s risk for falling. Each source provides tips for preventing falls. If you have experienced falls, please share that information with your doctor, physical therapist, or loved one. There is no shame in asking for help to prevent a fall. If you have a loved one who has fallen, please do not shame them. Treat them with the kindness and compassion you want for yourself. Respect their dignity. Preventing a fall is preventing a fracture.
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Bone Health is Connected to Overall Health
July 17, 2024
Guest blog by Nick Birch, FRCS (Orth)
A doctor examines the back of a patient 's neck
June 21, 2024
I recently received a question: why is my T score going up and my fragility score getting worse? This is a great question. Let's take this step by step. First let's address the T-score. When tracking bone health over time, we must evaluate the actual numbers for Bone Mineral Density (BMD), not T-score. The T-score is a nice way to get an overall picture of your BMD compared to a 30-year-old white female. It is easy to get sucked into comparing T-scores, as we have all been conditioned to look at T-scores. However, T-scores represent standard deviations on a graph, and they represent a range of numbers and not absolute values of BMD. Therefore, tracking bone density over time can only be done by comparing BMD values in g/cm 2 and expressing those changes as percentages compared to baseline and compared to the result immediately prior. There are several factors that cause the BMD and therefore T-scores to change including age, levels of activity, nutrition and build. In post-menopausal women, there is a natural reduction of BMD and T scores over time which can be slowed, and in some cases reversed, with attention to good nutritional balance and lots of impact and resistance exercise. These changes usually occur slowly and are often not detectable on DXA scans in under several years because the Least Significant Change (LSC) is 5-6% which is not sensitive enough to measure a few percentage points difference. REMS can detect such changes, usually at yearly intervals. Changes in BMD caused by increases or decreases in weight and thus Body Mass Index (BMI) occur more quickly, and these changes can often be detected by REMS over a period of months rather than years. If the change is sufficiently large, DXA will be able to detect it in similar timeframes. For simplicity, let’s say BMD in 2022 was 0.983 g/cm 2 . Then in 2024, BMD was 0.899 g/cm 2 . The change in BMD is calculated as follows: 0.899 - 0.983 = -0.084 This demonstrates a decrease BMD (g/cm 2 ) over 2 years. To find the percent change, divide -0.084 by the original BMD (g/cm 2 ) -0.084 ÷ 0.983 = -0.085 This indicates there was an 8.5% decrease in BMD (g/cm 2 ). Remember to take into consideration the LSC which are different for DXA and REMS. A generally accepted LSC for DXA is 5-6% . So, if the change in BMD over time is less than 5-6%, it is not necessarily a real change when measure by DXA. If the change is greater than 5-6%, it does represent a real change. LSC for REMS is 0.88-1.05% (0.88% for hip and 1.05% for spine) meaning it can detect smaller changes, often in shorter timeframes. In the example provided above, there was a real change in BMD, as 8.5% is greater than 5-6% for DXA and 0.88-1.05% for REMS. Fragility Score is an adimensional number from 0-100. The lower the score, the better. FS reflects the micro-architecture of the bone. The AI in REMS technology compares the acquired spectra from the patient to a reference database. If the patient’s spectra match the spectra of individuals who have fractured, the patient will be in the RED. If the patient’s spectra match the spectra of individuals in the database who did not fracture, then the patient will be in the GREEN. YELLOW indicates some individuals fracture, and some did not. There is a natural increase in FS over time which is in the range of 1.5 – 2.0% per year in post-menopausal women. If the difference in FS over, for instance three years, is 4-5, that change may be inconsequential, considering the LSC and the expected change with age. Remember, you are more than your T-scores or Z-scores. Knowledge brings empowerment and peace of mind.
A woman is sitting on the floor looking at a piece of paper
June 12, 2024
It is VERY common to see discrepancies in the values noted on DXA versus values noted on REMS. Without seeing the images from your DXA scan on a complete report, your physician is not able to pick apart the details of your DXA report. However, there are some common themes that we REMS users have seen. For a simple guide to understanding your DXA report, please see: Choplin, et al. "A practical approach to interpretation of dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry of bone density," Curr Radiol Rep (2014). During the development of REMS technology, REMS was compared to the "gold standard" of DXA. The performance of the DXAs for comparison was quality controlled, as was the performance of the REMS. In the community, DXA quality is not assured the same way that it is in a research scenario. The potential for errors is high for DXA. The potential for REMS errors is much lower given the precision of the technology. For reference, please see: Messina, et al. "Prevalence and type of errors in dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry." Eur Rad, Nov 2014. Fatima, et al. "Discordant interpretation of serial bone mineral density measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry using vendor's and institutional least significant changes: Serious impact on decision-making," World Journal of Nuclear Medicine, 2018, 236-240. Typically, the values on DXA hips, REMS spine, and REMS hips are similar. The DXA spine is typically the outlier. DXA spine values may be very negative and DXA hips and REMS spine and hips are not so negative. Why would your spine be one value and your hips a completely different value on DXA? Dr. Nick Birch and his colleague Maddy Young presented their data regarding discordance at the British Orthopaedic Research Society annual meeting in the autumn of 2023. Young M, Birch N. “Prevalence of major and minor discordance between hip and spine T-score using REMS: Implication for bone health assessment and patient management.” Orthop Procs. 2023;105-B(SUPP_16):46-46. If you are interested in learning about the development of REMS technology, or to have a couple of papers to share with your treating physicians about REMS, I recommend: Della Ciardo, et al. "Pulse-Echo Measurements of Bone Tissue, Techniques and Clinical Results at the Spine and Femur," Bone Quantitative Ultrasound. Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology 1364. Pisani, et al. "Screening and early diagnosis of osteoporosis through x-ray and ultrasound- based techniques," World Journal of Radiology, 2013 Nov 28; 5(11): 398-410. ​Pisani et al. "Fragility Score: a REMS-based indicator for the prediction of incident fragility fractures at 5 years," Aging Clin Exp Res; 2023; 35(4): 763-773. This last paper is ground-breaking as it demonstrates the importance of consideration of bone quality in terms of fracture risk. This paper is mentioned in the 10-minute video tutorial, “ Understanding Your REMS Report ”. Here are some things you may consider: Was there a significant change between your baseline DXA and subsequent DXAs? Is it reasonable to obtain serial scans over the next couple of years? If there is no change and your bone density and quality are stable, is there a need for medication for bone health? If there is a precipitous decline in density or quality, would you consider medication? Be honest with yourself and your treating physician about what you are willing to do or not do to optimize your bone health. Have you had a fragility fracture? Fractures are the greatest predictors of future fractures. Are your labs normal? Receiving the diagnosis of osteoporosis can be overwhelming. Remember, you are more than your DXA T-score or Z-score.
The word abc is written on a blackboard next to a stack of books.
December 19, 2023
Medical Science is full of acronyms and special terms. We have included a list of those commonly used on this site.
October 21, 2023
It's the time of year when ghosts, goblins, and skeletons run the streets. Happy Halloween! I have fond memories of the excitement of making costumes and running around with friends on Halloween. Of course, getting a ton of candy was the goal, but what has lasted through the years are the memories of being with friends, having pride in making a costume, and learning how to broker deals - Bottlecaps for Dum-Dums. I continued that tradition with my son. Yep- he was a pumpkin, a Thomas the Tank Engine engineer, a TRex (his arms were not too short to grab candy), a baby tiger with mommy tiger, a SpiderMan Shark (yes, you read that correctly), Wolverine (old school Wolverine), and an Alien Hunter. The days of making costumes with him have passed, as his other interests have taken priority…for now. I enjoy sitting outside giving candy to kids in the neighborhood and reminiscing about walking around with my son as he lived up to his alter ego for the season. Whether you choose to venture out with little ones, or stay home to give out candy, take a moment to mitigate risks for a potential fall . Use a flashlight when walking the neighbor. Make sure the pathway to your calderon of candy is well-lit . Wear sensible shoes for walking. Fur babies that rush to the door when the doorbell rings, create a fall risk. Consider using a leash and have them accompany you to the door, or secure them in a crate or room during Trick-or-Treat hours. Make sure your eyesight is not blocked by a mask or costume. If you cannot see where you are going, you may find yourself kissing a curb. Ouch. Preventing a fall equals preventing a fracture. Oftentimes, people I meet with osteoporosis have fear of breaking a bone. They have been scared by other doctors who have put fear in their minds- fear of crumbling bones and falling apart. Life is meant to be lived. You will not disintegrate (unless an alien strolling your neighborhood gets you with a laser beam). Be smart. Do some risk management. And embrace living life to its fullest. Let me know if you score some Bottlecaps because I will trade some Razzles for Bottlecaps any day!
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